Does Terrelle Pryor's Decision Really Mean That Much?

Hey, it's National Signing Day! That's right college football fan, your favorite team is about to be restocked with the best talent available. Well, unless you're a Tennessee fan, then you get whatever happens to slip through the claws of other SEC teams as it falls to #34. Anyway, what's going to happen with Terrelle Pryor? Will it be Michigan? Ohio State? Another school that says he's interested just to strike fear into the heart of its opponent? Does it really matter?

In all honesty, like Orson over at EDSBS has stated, you're basically tying the future performance of your team to how well an 18-year old matures and adapts to the system that your coaching staff runs. There is no accounting for injuries, arrests or firings. The rankings that these kids, because that's really what they are, have been given have come against teams that included some players as good as them(probably even some that were better), and a number of kids that aren't nearly talented as they are.

Sure, they might have played well in an all-star game, but that's just one game. The season is a collection of "one games", and the peformance of your #1 recruit, the one that's supposedly going to resurrect the program(*cough*Jimmy Clausen*cough*), could vary widely.

Let's take a look at the top 5 recruits as rated by Rivals.com over the past five years:

2007
Jimmy Clausen(QB), Notre Dame: 10 games, 56.3% comp., 1254yds, 7TD's, 6INT's
Joe McKnight(RB), USC: 12 games, 5.7ypc, 540yds, 3TD's, 23rec., 203yds, 1TD
Eric Berry(DB), Tennessee: 14 games, 86 tot. tckls., 5INT's, 1TD
Ryan Mallet(QB), Michigan: 11 games, 43.3%comp., 892yds, 7TD's, 5INT's
Carlos Dunlap(DE), Florida: 12 games, 1 sack, 7 tot. tckls.

Obviously, this class can't be judged too much since they've only been on the field for a year. A lot of how they performed depended on what type of situation they stepped into. I.E. veteran quarterback, running back by committee, etc. However, you can see that all of them participated in quite a few games, and that some peformed well at their position, while others struggled.

2006
Percy Harvin(WR), Florida
Andre Smith(OL), Alabama
Chris Wells(RB), Ohio State
Gerald McCoy(DT), Oklahoma
Sergio Kindle(LB), Texas

For the most part, this is another top five that has played well. Percy Harvin won the '06 SEC Freshman of the Year award, and was named the MVP of the '06 SEC Championship Game. He also helped Florida win the National Championship in '06. Andre Smith has been an outstanding performer on 'Bama's o-line, and has played in all 26 games. He recorded a team high 62 knockdowns as a freshman, and continues to improve. Chris Wells has played in two National Championship games in two years. He became the full-time starter in '07, and responded with 1,609yds(222 against Michigan) and 15TD's. Gerald McCoy redshirted in 2006, but performed well in '07 and won the Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year award. Sergio Kindle has seen action on special teams, and has had limited duty as a strongside linebacker. Prior to the '07 season he was arrested for driving while intoxicated, and missed the first three games due to suspension.

2005
Derrick Williams(ATH), Penn State
Patrick Turner(WR), Southern Cal
Eugene Monroe(OL), Virginia
Melvin Alaeze(DE), Maryland
Rey Maualuga(LB), Southern Cal

An interesting top 5 class that has some solid performers, and one recruit that probably could have been as good as the rest. Derrick Williams played well at a variety of positions before his freshman season ended in '05 because of a broken arm. He was named to the freshman Big-10 All-Conference team. In '06-'07, he played wide receiver, but managed to put up only 440 yards and 1 TD. In '07-'08, Williams had 529 yards receiving and 3 TD's. Patrick Turner spent his first two seasons mostly as a fill-in, but got the chance to start in '07. He responded with 569 yards receiving and 3 TD's. Eugene Monroe has been a solid contributor on the offensive line for Virginia. He's played in every game up to this point, and was an honorable mention selection for the All-ACC team in '07. Rey Maualuga has been an outstanding linebacker for Southern Cal. This past season, he registered 79 total tackles and 6 sacks. He was an All-Pac-10 Second Team selection in '06, a First Team selection in '07 and was the defensive MVP of the 2008 Rose Bowl.

Sadly, this class also includes a recruit that was highly sought after, but off the field issues prevented him from excelling. The first sign of trouble for Melvin Alaeze came when he his scholarship was revoked by Maryland for drug related offenses. It looked like he was going to get another chance with Illinois, but then he was arrested for robbery and attempted murder. He was sentenced this past fall to eight years in prison because of those charges.

2004
Adrian Peterson(RB), Oklahoma
Ted Ginn(DB), Ohio State
Early Doucet(WR), LSU
Rhett Bomar(QB), Oklahoma
Keith Rivers(LB), Southern Cal

A top 5 that has had some great individual performers, and a recruit that only lasted two seasons.

Not much needs to be said about Adrian Peterson. He finished with a total of 4,045 rushing yards at Oklahoma(in just three years that weren't even full ones due to injury), and broke the NCAA freshman rushing record in 2004. He was the #7 pick in the '07 NFL Draft. Ted Ginn, Jr. saw limited time as a freshman, but moved into a starting role as a sophomore in '05. He finished the season with 803 yards and 5TD's. As a junior, had 781 yards receiving and 9TD's. He was selected #9 in the '07 NFL Draft. Early Doucet is another receiver that saw limited action as a freshman, but played a much bigger part of the offense as he moved along. In his sophomore season in '05, Doucet finished with 389 yards receiving and 5TD's. Doucet's junior season saw him finish with 772 yards and 8TD's. And as a senior in '07, he tallied 525 yards and 5TD's, eventhough he missed four games. Keith Rivers is another of the '04 class that contributed all four years. He played sparingly as a freshman, but racked up 35, 49 and 43 solo tackles throughout his next three seasons. He was Southern Cal's leading tackler as a junior, and lead them in solo tackles this past season.

Rhett Bomar was much hyped prospect that was supposed to team with Adrian Peterson, and form a dynamic duo. He redshirted his freshman year in 2004, and struggled at times during the 2005 season. Though, he did manage to finish the year with 2,018 passing yards, a completion percentage of 54.2%, 10TD's and 10INT's. He was also the MVP of that year's Holiday Bowl. Unfortunately, during the summer of '06 it was discovered that he was paid for work that he did not complete, and he was subsequently dismissed from the Oklahoma football team. Bomar did not play football in 2006, though he did play in 2007 for Sam Houston State. He passed for 2,209 yards, 10TD's and 6INT's with a completion percentage of 59.1% last season for the Bearkats.

2003
Ernie Sims(LB), FSU
Reggie Bush(RB), Southern Cal
Whitney Lewis(ATH), Southern Cal
Andre Caldwell(WR), Florida
Kyle Wright(QB), Miami

Another interesting class that has some outstanding athletes, and some that never lived up to the expectations that were placed upon them.

Ernie Sims started contributing as a freshman, and never looked back. In three years, he racked up 200 total tackles, and 7 sacks. He was chosen #9 in the 2006 NFL Draft. Obviously, Reggie Bush was an oustanding performer for Southern Cal. As a freshman he racked up 1,331 all-purpose yards, and 7 total TD's. As a sophomore in 2004, he built on a solid first season by amassing 2,330 all-purpose yards and 16 total TD's. In 2005, he really excelled and finished the season with 1,740 rushing yards(just part of his 2,890 all-purpose yards) and 16 rushing TD's. He won the Walter Camp Award, Doak Walker Award and the Heisman Trophy. Andre Caldwell was a solid performer for Florida during his tenure. As a freshman, he tallied 174 yards receiving, and lead the team in kick returns. In his sophomore season, he saw increased playing time, and responded with 689 receiving yards and 4TD's. He received a medical redshirt because of a broken leg in 2005, and sat out most of the season. However, he returned in '06, and finished with 577 yards receiving and 6TD's. As a senior in 2007, he finished with 761 yards receiving and 7TD's.

Whitney Lewis and Kyle Wright on the other hand, never really lived up to the hype surrounding their recruitment. Lewis didn't see much playing time as a freshman in 2003 because of a crowded backfield at Southern Cal. He was forced to redshirt during the 2004 season because he was academically ineligible. He returned in 2005, but was a backup receiver. Fed up with his lack of playing time, Lewis transferred to Northern Iowa State. In 2006, he compiled 360 rushing yards and 3TD's in seven games. In 2007, he managed 218 yards receiving and 1TD. Wright redshirted in 2003, his freshman season, and was a backup in 2004. In 2005, he took over the starter's role, and finished with 2,403 passing yards, 18TD's and 10INT's. Though, he struggled against the stronger opponents that he faced. In 2006, Wright struggled again before having his season ended by a thumb injury. Before being injured, he put up 1,655 passing yards, 8TD's and 7INT's. In 2007, Wright split time with Kirby Freeman, and amassed 1,747 passing yards, 12TD's and 14INT's. Though, he was never able to become the next leader of "Quarterback U".

So, to answer the question about Terrelle Pryor, yes, it does matter where he goes. Does his commitment guarantee a national title? Of course not. However, as a top 5 ranked recruit he does have a good shot at making a significant impact. Though, the difficulty of the quarterback position makes it a bit harder to achieve a high level of success than some of the other ones. In that respect, I would advise the fanbase of whatever school Pryor signs with to be cautiously optimistic, and hope that he doesn't receive improper benefits, get charged with a crime, get injured or struggle beyond what they're prepared to tolerate.

Chucky Hates ESPN4

A few months ago, Toledo football player Harvey McDougle was charged for his part in a point-shaving scheme. He was suspected of "offering bribes to teammates so the point spread would be covered". At that time no other Toledo football players were suspected of being involved. However, as the investigation has continued another Toldeo player, former star quarterback Bruce Gradkowski, has had his name mentioned. Mostly by ESPN.

One of the other names that has surfaced during the investigation, sources confirmed, is Bruce Gradkowski, the Rockets' starting quarterback in the 2003-05 seasons who now is a backup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Authorities have not spoken about Gradkowski's possible connection, but sources say investigators are examining his playing time in a number of games under scrutiny as they follow up on an allegation that Manni had offered a Toledo player $10,000 to sit out particular games.

"I don't know what to say about that," said Gradkowski, coming off the field after a recent Bucs' training camp practice. A Tampa Bay public relations assistant, who had been made aware of the focus of the interview, walked beside Gradkowski and deflected follow-up questions.

Apparently some members of the press weren't satisfied with that answer so they asked Bucs' head coach Jon Gruden what he thought of Gradkowski's name being mentioned in connection with the point-shaving scheme. Of course, Gruden's response didn't let us down.

I don't watch ESPN," Gruden said after the Bucs' 31-24 exhibition victory Thursday night against the Houston Texans. "I don't believe half of the [expletive] people on the channel, personally."

"If Bruce Gradkowski is throwing games at Toledo, why in the [heck] does he lead the NCAA in passing percentages? That is a crock," Gruden said. "These reports make me sick, really. I don't believe there is any truth to it and I'll go to my grave believing that -- and I hope ESPN3 or 4 has some real sources behind this story."

Haha...ESPN4? I think that's the channel where they air Berman's food show, "Boomer's Buffet Busting". Though, that quote does make me curious as to which people are included in the "half" that Gruden believes.

Always Bet On The (Running)Back

That wonderful time of year is here again. A time when one can really immerse themself in football, whether it's college, pro or fantasy. Though, you might not want to let your workplace know that you're a fantasy team owner.

This year, however there's a new aspect of football fandom. Betting on fantasy football stats. Instead of drafting a team, and participating in a league you can choose from different players(24 players: 8RB, 8QB, 8WR) each week.

Station Casinos Inc., the fifth-largest sports book in the country, was to become the first to release a betting line - at 7 p.m. EDT - and start taking wagers based on players' projected fantasy statistics.

So instead of plunking down a bet on whether the Saints will beat the Colts next week, or how many points will be scored, a better in Vegas can wager that Reggie Bush will finish with more than 16 fantasy points. Or that Peyton Manning might be under 21.

Station isn't offering fantasy leagues, just the chance to bet on fantasy projections for 24 players a week.

Some sports books in Nevada - the only state where sports gambling is legal - occasionally offer "proposition" bets on a player's yardage or touchdowns.

But Station is rolling all a player's projected stats together, then setting an over-under betting number based on a scoring system used in many fantasy leagues. With six points awarded for each touchdown, one point for every 30 yards passing and one point for every 10 points rushing or receiving, Station determines a player's fantasy line.

For the opening weekend, for example, Donovan McNabb's fantasy line is 16, and Terrell Owens' is 14.

And the pool of 24 players is going to change each week, so you always have to be knowledgeable of the match-ups like any good fantasy football participant.

It will be interesting to see if this type of betting catches on because it is so specific. To me, fantasy football is all about beating your opponents week in and week out with a team that you've put together. Though, people will bet on anything, so I could see this type of gambling having some moderate success.

The U.S. Open, Now With Less Gambling

I've heard that people will bet on anything, though I've never thought of tennis as being something that's heavily involved in any type of wagering. A $20,000 bet on shooting left-handed free throws? Probably happens all of the time. Wagering on fantasy football teams? Definitely! Placing bets on tennis? Uh, I guess so.

Well, U.S. Open officials are concerned enough that they hired a security firm and set up a "whistleblower hotline".

The U.S. Open hired a security firm run by a former New York City police commissioner, set up a whistle-blower hotline and is taking other steps to make sure it doesn't wind up with a gambling scandal.

In the wake of a recent betting investigation in tennis and a former NBA referee's admission he gambled on games he officiated, the U.S. Tennis Association decided "to see if there's something more that we can do," USTA senior director of communications Chris Widmaier said Thursday.

A whistleblower hotline? I have a feeling all of the lines are going to be jammed up with Richard Williams calling to complain about his daughters.

Though, if the hotline doesn't work there are signs to remind everyone about just how bad gambling is.

Also, signs describing the Open's gambling policy have been posted in locker rooms, player lounges, training rooms and elsewhere around the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

Under the heading, "REMINDER," the signs read: "The participation in or aiding and abetting, directly or indirectly, of any form of gambling or betting involving tennis is strictly prohibited. The USTA has a zero tolerance policy on gambling or betting involving tennis, and any violation of such policy will result in immediate disciplinary action."

Right now, Roger Goodell is having similar ones placed in NFL locker rooms, though they read "Gambling On The NFL Is Punishable By Death".

Donaghy Scandal Continues To Damage The NBA's Credibility

Yesterday, I wrote a post regarding the NBA hiring a private investigator a year ago to look into referee Tim Donaghy's gambling habits. One of the most potentially damaging aspects of this incident is not whether the NBA knew of Donaghy's problems, but when they knew. Obviously they had some idea that there was a problem before the regular season started.

I believe that we can assume the NBA was watching Donaghy for the entire season(or longer), and that they were keeping a close eye on any game that he officiated. If that's the case, then why did they continue to allow him to referee games, including the playoffs, when the numbers relating to his games showed an obvious bias?

What bias you ask? Check out the numbers from gambling expert RJ Bell, president of PreGame.com:

"Over the last two seasons (reportedly the focus of the FBIs investigation into this matter), the games refereed by Tim Donaghy scored more points than Las Vegas expected over 57 percent of the time (79 of 138 games). The odds of that happening randomly are 19 to 1.

Premise #1: The more fouls a referee calls, the more he affects the game.

Premise #2: There is an absolute correlation between the number of fouls a referee calls in an NBA game and the number of points scored by the teams. (The logic being that fouls result in free throws, which stop the clock and add points).

Conclusion: An NBA ref who intended to illicitly influence a game would do so by calling more fouls, and thus his games would be higher scoring than average.

Not only have Tim Donaghys games the last two seasons been higher scoring than average, they have been so to a degree that would happen naturally only quite rarely. Which means it can be stated fairly that Tim Donaghys on-court behavior the last two seasons has an over 95% probability of being abnormal!

Maybe Tim Donaghy has always called lots of fouls, some may suggest. In the two years prior to the two years the FBI is investigating, Tim Donaghys games scored more points than Las Vegas expected only 44% of the time!

Assuming 44% "over" is Donaghy's natrual tendency, the odds of being "over" 57% for two full seasons are about 1000-1 against!"

Bell is putting this detailed summary together with the statistics that are readily available to him, so imagine what the NBA concluded with the information that they had gathered.

Either they didn't go very deep, or they didn't like what they found and hoped that this would never be made public. Unfortunately I have to go with the latter because it's been reported that Donaghy was forced into retirement due to these allegations. It appears that the NBA wanted to keep this quiet, and now that it's a full-blown scandal they're going to have a hard time convincing people that what they discovered over the course of last season wasn't enough to pull Donaghy off of the court.

NBA Commissioner David Stern is holding a press conference at 11AM this morning, and it will be interesting to see if he discloses exactly when the NBA became aware of Donaghy's problems. Personally, I think that's more important with regard to the NBA's image than Donaghy's own actions.