The Hit or Miss Nature of Fantasy Football

Fantasy football is anything but predictable, and I was reminded of this as one of my teams was eliminated from playoff contention over the weekend. While my team has suffered from having the 2nd most points scored against it(50 more than it's scored so far), the rest of the problems can be traced back to what I thought was a good draft. Altering just a few of my first picks on draft day probably would have had me in the hunt for a title.


Here are my first 5 picks(I had the #2 overall selection), and remember what the outlook was for each of these players heading into the season.

1. Adrian Peterson: 1016 rush yds, 8 rush tds, 331 rec. yds, 1 rec td
2. Larry Fitzgerald: 728 rec. yds, 5 rec. tds
3. Brandon Marshall: 693 rec. yds, 1 rec. td
4. DeAngelo Williams: 361 rush yds, 1 rush td, 61 rec. yds
5. Cedric Benson: 788 rush yds, 4 rush tds, 126 rec. yds, 1 td

Back in August, this seemed like a pretty good first 5 choices. In late November, it's easy to see why my team was struggling to get a playoff berth. Contrast my picks with the first 5 of the team in first place(who had the #1 overall pick):

1. Chris Johnson: 973 rush yds, 9 rush tds, 105 rec. yds
2. Calvin Johnson: 806 rec. yds, 11 rec. tds
3. Greg Jennings: 822 rec. yds, 9 rec. tds
4. Matt Schaub: 2752 pass yds, 15 pass tds, 7 ints
5. Arian Foster: 1147 rush yds, 12 rush tds, 453 yds rec. 1 td

My lack of a dominant #1 wide receiver coming from my top 5 picks really hurt. Mike Wallace & Jeremy Maclin(my 11th & 12th picks) have turned out to be my best options. LeSean McCoy and Matt Ryan have turned out to be good late-round selections, but three out of my top five picks consistently under-performing combined with what seemed like season-high point totals by my opponent every week kept my team from getting to the post-season.

All in all, it's just another learning experience in the unpredictable world that is fantasy football.