Looking Back to '03: Predicting the Success of Tyler Murphy

When Jeff Driskel was knocked out of the game due to injury with 10:05 left in the first quarter against Tennessee I figured the season had gone up in smoke. Sure, the defense and special teams might be overwhelming enough to eek out a win versus the Vols, but beyond that the prospects weren't going to be good. Turns out I was wrong. Not only did Tyler Murphy fill in admirably for the injured Driskel, he also provided hope that this season isn't entirely lost.

To be fair, Murphy didn't look great at first, and without the defense forcing back-to-back turnovers I'm not sure how the game plays out. However, that's exactly what this team was built to do. Play suffocating defense, run the ball, control the clock and not turn it over. When the offense needed extra snaps to calm everything down the defense pulled through. By halftime, Murphy had made the most of those snaps en route to a 17-7 lead for the Gators. At that point I felt like Murphy was running a very Chris Leak-esque offense, and based on how the team has struggled to move the ball at times in recent years, that isn't a bad thing.

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Five Things The Gators Need To Do Versus The Wildcats

On Saturday, the Florida Gators welcome the Kentucky Wildcats to The Swamp. I can't imagine that too many Gator fans are nervous about the team losing, and most of them probably want to see Will Muschamp and Co. put a large amount of points on the scoreboard. Honestly, I'm not as concerned with the score as I am with using the opportunity to really work on some key areas. For me, there are five items that I would like the Gators to actively work on during tomorrow's game. They are:

1. Get Andre Debose Involved
Seriously. I would like to say this list is in no particular order, but Debose is non-existent in the offense right now. With the kickoffs being moved up he's not going to do much damage there this season. Instead, he needs to use his speed and elusiveness during gameplay. I don't mind seeing him on Jet Sweeps, but would rather see him catching passes down the field. Please Brent Pease make this happen.

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Victory Formation: Gators Beat Volunteers

This image is so much better than the one in the post below. Thank you Coach Muschamp and Florida football players for providing us with this endlessly entertaining GIF(image courtesy SB Nation), and for coming home with a 37-20 win over the Tennessee Volunteers.

My original prediction of a 27-20 win for the Gators wasn't too far off, and I'm very happy those extra 10 points went up on the Florida side of the scoreboard. I felt relatively good that UF was only down four at halftime, even after settling for a field goal right before the half. However, I didn't expect a 27-6 scoring binge in favor of the Gators in the second half. Let's see how the Gators ended up with the victory, and how close my other predictions were.

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How And Why The Florida Gators Can Beat The Tennessee Volunteers

First, if Tyler Bray does this at all on Saturday night versus the Gators, I'm probably throwing a beer glass through my TV. With that out of the way here's why I'm optimistic that Florida can escape Knoxville with a win.

Florida Runs the Ball Better
If you've seen any of the recent Florida vs Tennessee games, then you've heard the stat that the team with the most rushing yards wins. I won't break down past rushing numbers, but looking each team's performance against their toughest opponent of 2012 I am confident that Florida is the better rushing team.

Comparing Florida's game versus Texas A&M to Tennessee's game versus N.C. State I noticed that Florida didn't have as many negative rushing plays. Shocking, I know. Here's the breakdown:

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2004, Tennessee Football & Petey Pablo

Realizing that Florida has rattled off seven straight wins against the Volunteers even surprised me a little bit. I knew that the Gators had been victorious in most of their recent contests with Tennessee, but it doesn't feel like seven wins. Just for perspective here's the song that was #1 on the radio(according to Billboard) the last time the Volunteers beat the Gators(September 18, 2004):

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Week 2 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Every week I'll scout players that are likely available in your fantasy football league, and provide  "sleepers" from the four key positions, quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end. I'll also provide one kicker and one team defense.

This is based on a 10 team PPR Yahoo! league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end and one flex(W/R) player. I'm denoting "sleeper" as less than 75% owned, though, there may be borderline players that I don't include because they're probably not available in most leagues. Also, this is only week two so you should still be starting most of the players you drafted, but if you feel like swinging for the fences with some boom or bust picks be my guest.

Quarterback
My Yahoo! league tells me that Joe Flacco is 74% owned. Technically, he's under that 75% bar, but I wouldn't consider him a sleeper after that Monday night performance.

Sam Bradford: Currently 22% ownership. Bradford was serviceable in his opener against Detroit going 17/25(68%) for 198 yards and 1 touchdown with no turnovers. His opponent this week, the Washington Redskins, got out to a quick start against the New Orleans Saints last Sunday and survived Drew Brees trying to pass his way back into a win. Here's the thing though, Washington's defense only had to defend 10 rushing attempts. Steven Jackson should rack up at least twice as many, and open up the field for Bradford. I can see Bradford passing for at least 250 yards and two scores.

Christian Ponder: Currently 12% owned. Ponder really didn't do much last week versus the Jaguars, but with AP rumbling for two touchdowns he didn't really need to. This week's opponent, the Indianapolis Colts, is fresh off giving up over 300 yards passing and two touchdowns to Jay Cutler. I expect to see much more impressive offense take the field for Minnesota this weekend, and Ponder should put up 300+ yards and two touchdowns.

Andy Dalton: Currently 50% owned. Cincinnati got torched by the Ravens on Monday night, but a lot of that was due to the defense's inability to stop Baltimore's offense. Joe Flacco only threw eight incompletions while hitting almost 300 yards and connecting for two touchdowns. Brandon Weeden will not do that this week, and I like Cincinnati to get rolling early in this game. I'd peg Dalton for 250 yards passing and at least two, maybe three, touchdowns.

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At It Again

Posts here have been sporadic over the past couple of years. Daily life got busy, and gobbled up more and more of the time that I usually carved out for researching and writing. However, I still very much enjoy that process, and I've decided to set aside the necessary time to get this thing going again. Hopefully, this becomes a place for insightful discourse on a variety of subjects.

FredEx Now Delivering Fraudulent Tax Returns

Former NFL wide receiver Freddie Mitchell has been indicted for allegedly assisting a couple with filing fraudulent tax returns for professional athletes. Apparently, the plan was to grossly inflate the tax refund due to the pro athlete, and back that up with fake documents. From the Orlando Sentinel:

Mitchell turned himself into authorities, but it is unclear when his next court appearance will be. His two co-defendants, Jamie Russ-Walls and her husband Richard Walls, were arrested in Pennsylvania and are scheduled to be arraigned in Orlando on Thursday. All three are accused of conspiring to defraud the IRS.

Russ-Walls or Walls prepared individual income-tax returns that falsely claimed the taxpayers were due significant refunds, in amounts ranging from $170,000 to $1.9 million, and created false documents to support their fraudulent claims, the indictment alleges.

From some quick research it looks like Mitchell was probably just the pipeline for contacting pro athletes because of his four year(yeah, I know, it seemed like a lot longer) NFL career. Wonder if he got into this racket after his BBQ restaurant went under?

The big question now is who is "A.G." that was hoodwinked by FredEx? I checked out the Philadelphia rosters from 01-04, but didn't see any players with those initials. Nothing on the '05 Chiefs either. Anyone have any ideas?

The Hit or Miss Nature of Fantasy Football

Fantasy football is anything but predictable, and I was reminded of this as one of my teams was eliminated from playoff contention over the weekend. While my team has suffered from having the 2nd most points scored against it(50 more than it's scored so far), the rest of the problems can be traced back to what I thought was a good draft. Altering just a few of my first picks on draft day probably would have had me in the hunt for a title.

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Is Meyer Behind the Newton Leak?

The Cam Newton eligibility saga got a little more interesting today. First, it was reported that Newton was caught cheating at Florida, and left the school before appearing in front of the Florida Student Conduct Committee. Then, it came out that the FBI was getting involved, and would like to speak with John Bond.

Throughout the day, one thing has remained constant, the murmurs that somehow Urban Meyer and/or someone on his staff is behind this entire thing. Some theories paint Meyer as a jilted former coach that wanted to thrust Florida back into the spotlight while diminishing Newton's accomplishments. Others have him just being a "bad guy" that's looking to get Newton declared ineligible prior to a possible Auburn vs Florida SEC Championship Game.

In any case, what would Urban Meyer gain from leaking this info?

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In All Kinds of Weather...

...We'll all stick together. For F-L-O-R-I-D-A.

I'm not sure this season is exactly what the composer had in mind, but hopefully we can all stick together and make it through this perfect storm of ineptitude that's hit.

There's a lot of noise in the machine right now calling for various changes. Some want Addazio fired. Others just want him to go back to being strictly an offensive line coach. And still others want Brantley benched in favor of Trey Burton. Three straight losses, two at home, will cause that sort of loud displeasure when the fanbase is used to the success that occurred over the past 5 seasons. So, what moves can be made to get the Gators pointed in the right direction?

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6 Week Mini-Snapshot: Is it Just UF's Offense?

The Gators are 4-2, and many fans believe that lackluster offensive playcalling is to blame for much of the team's woes. Voicing displeasure about the way offensive coordinator Steve Addazio has run the offense is quickly becoming a tradition much like the Gator Walk. So, is it really his fault? How do the Gators stack up on both sides of the ball when compared to the first 6 games of last season?

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At Least Someone's Getting Fired...

...Right?

Seriously, tonight's loss to LSU doesn't feel like '07 where UF's offense was off the charts, but the defense was a sieve. Right now it's more like shoehorn Brantley into the offense instead of taking advantage of his strengths. And Demps? All reports indicate that he was game ready, yet he has no chance to contribute? Good call coaching staff. Honestly, the coaches better have their collective heads on swivels because the boosters won't take back-to-back losses quietly.

Ugh. I'll breakdown this inexcusable loss further on Sunday.

The Chris Rainey "Situation"

By now, most college football fans are probably aware that Florida wide receiver Chris Rainey was arrested and charged with aggravated stalking this past Tuesday. It's been reported that he went to the home of a woman that he's dated on and off for three years after she missed a call from him. Then, after leaving, he sent her at least one threatening text message. Currently, Rainey is not with the team.

I've read and heard a number of opinions ranging from he should be booted immediately to he should be suspended indefinitely and assisted with any anger issues he has. There are also people questioning the severity of the incident, and seem to think it's along the lines of a boyfriend-girlfriend spat.

Personally, I can see the validity in just about all of those points of view, and I'm pretty torn on exactly what Coach Meyer should. Obviously, a lot is being made of the number of arrests under Meyer, and being a Florida alum I don't like seeing any school "representatives", be they athletes, coaches, AD's, etc., in trouble with the law. From that side I can see why people think Rainey should be dismissed from the team.

However, I've coached youth sports, and while it's not quite the same as being an FBS head football coach, I do have a little insight into how athletics can be the only release for some kids. Rainey has always seemed to have a pretty good relationship with Meyer, and I'm sure that the decision of whether or not to take football away from him is something that Meyer will agonize over. I would imagine that Meyer really feels like he can help Rainey through this, but because of prior transgressions with UF football players he might not get the chance to.

In the end, there can be a delicate balance between using your athletic abilities to achieve success, and using them to gain preferential treatment that allows you to escape what the public deems as proper punishment.

Ok, Commissioner Stern, I'll "Make Your Day"

"And if someone wants to try me in the rest of this playoffs, you know, make my day. Because the game is too important and I don't think that the people who trash it are respecting it, and we'll do what we have to do-the players and coaches alike-because they give the impression to our fans that the referees somehow have an agenda." -NBA Commissioner David Stern

Apparently, Dwight Howard "tried" Mr. Stern with his recent blog post concerning the foul calls made against him the Charlotte series because he was hit with a $35,000 fine. It was the same amount that his coach Stan Van Gundy and fellow teammate Matt Barnes received. And you know what? I think it's weak.

I get that the commissioner has to stand behind each and every call the officials make, especially with the whole Tim Donaghy debacle still on the minds of some people(no matter how misdirected that might be). I also understand that coaches probably shouldn't be able to ramble on and on about calls without the fear of some type of punishment. However, I do have a problem with players not being able to voice their concern or frustration even just a little bit. Anyone that watched the Charlotte series probably felt at least one time that Dwight Howard was the victim of some very questionable calls.

Seriously, by the third and fourth games it became comical, and I was shocked if more than a few minutes went by without Dwight somehow drawing a whistle.

So you know what commissioner? I'm going to make your day, and question every call that I think is b.s. right here on The Sports Oasis. You might not have issued a directive to the refs but it feels like the NBA is gunning for an LA/Cleveland match-up in the Finals, and I'm going to document any of the bad calls that might contribute to making that a reality.

M15directed Hate

Before we start put this on in the background.

In the past few years the coverage of Florida Gators quarterback Tim Tebow has reached epic proportions. Prompting a backlash from many that consider him overrated. However, Tebow isn't to blame for the hype that surrounds him. He doesn't claim to be the greatest of all time. He shares praise with his teammates and coaches after a win, and takes the blame when the team falters. No, the focus of the hate directed at Tebow should instead be directed at the ESPN's, Fox's and other major sports media outlets that have bombarded everyone with wall-to-wall coverage. However, to their credit they have to make money, and they know that anything concerning Tebow will generate page views, clickthroughs, comments and ad revenue.

They've done a great job at monetizing the aura of Tebow, and both the love and hate that comes with it. For the Tebow fans they see a college athlete that seems to be genuinely grateful for the opportunity that he's been given. One that loves donning the orange and blue, especially on game day. For the haters, they're tired of the stories about a quarterback they've deemed "overrated", and some can't stand that he's so open about his religious beliefs both on and off the field. Ironically, those people probably stand up at sporting events and proudly recite the Pledge of Allegiance that includes "one nation under God" then bash Tebow with a hearty "keep your religion out of my sports".

In any case, Tebow isn't his own biggest cheerleader. Yes, he does play the game with a lot of passion(sometimes leading to tearful endings when he feels as if he's let every Gator in the world down), but isn't that what we want from our team leaders? And maybe that's the bigger problem. Maybe the hate doesn't come from the overexposure, but from the fact that Tebow doesn't play for your team. The inability to see talent because of team affiliation is probably even greater when the athlete in question is seemingly everywhere. Tebow's not campaigning to be called the best college football player of all time, but some people seem to be convinced that he is. Sadly, those people would probably still denigrate Tebow even if he had won four Heismans and four BCS titles. Fortunately, one Heisman(as a sophomore), two BCS titles, and 140+ total touchdowns should be good enough statistics for anyone that's not an outright hater to see just how talented Tebow has been at the college level.

Why There's No Reason For The Orange & Blue To Panic

So far this season I've heard more than one Gator fan talk about a win as though it were a loss. Close victories against Tennessee and LSU have been met with skepticism about the lack of a flashy, explosive passing game instead of enthusiastic banter about just how incredible this year's defensive squad is. Which is a bit odd considering that just about everyone in the country pegged Florida's returning two-deep defense as the reason they had a shot at repeating. Besides, is this year's team that far off from last year's through the first five games?

In one word, no.

In a few ways they're actually much better than last year's team was at this point.

The 2009 squad is undefeated, unlike the '08 team that started 4-1. They're also stronger on both sides of the ball. Check out the stats(through the first five games):

2008

Rushing Offense: 178.60 yds/gm
Passing Offense: 211.60 yds/gm
Total Offense: 390.20 yds/gm
Scoring Offense: 36 pts/gm

Rushing Defense: 99.60 yds/gm
Passing Defense: 165.40 yds/gm
Total Defense: 265 yds/gm
Scoring Defense: 11.40 pts/gm

2009

Rushing Offense: 284.60 yds/gm
Passing Offense: 201.80 yds/gm
Total Offense: 486.40 yds/gm
Scoring Offense: 39 pts/gm

Rushing Defense: 87.40 yds/gm
Passing Defense: 115.20 yds/gm
Total Defense: 202.60 yds/gm
Scoring Defense: 6.40 pts/gm

Last year's team really didn't get it going until the second half of the Arkansas game in week 5, and if this year's team improves at all on its current numbers it's definitely going to have a great shot at repeating.

Already, the offense is averaging more yards and points, and the running game that's been missing for a few seasons is running roughshod. The defense is stifling opponents, and is giving up an average of less than seven points per game. In fact, they've only allowed two touchdowns in five games so far. If they continue putting up those type of numbers, then they have a chance of being the best defense to ever take the field for the Gators.

So, cheer up Gator fans. Yes, there have been a few games where the score was closer than you might have liked. Though, I think that has more to do with the team playing a little under par in the red zone than anything else. This year's squad is every bit as good, if not much better, than the one that was able to capture both the SEC and BCS titles last year.

There Is Nothing to Second Guess

If you're a college football fan, then you've probably heard that Tim Tebow was injured during yesterday's win over Kentucky and likely suffered a concussion. You might have also heard columnists, fans, "haters" and experts second guessing Urban Meyer's decision to have Tebow in the game at that point in the third quarter with Florida leading 31-7. Though, to me that shows how little they watch the game, and renders their opinion just about worthless.

It's common practice to give your starters two to three sets of plays in the third quarter of a game that was a blowout by halftime. The game has a different feel after the break, and you want them to be used to playing after sitting in the locker room between the second and third quarters. If Urban Meyer sat his starters in the games that became blowouts by halftime, then they would have had eight quarters of football under the belts leading into yesterday's game. They then would have played 10 quarters of football(through four games) as they take two weeks off in preparation for traveling to LSU. To me, that sounds like the perfect recipe for not having a team that's game tested as they head into an extremely hostile playing environment. After all, you can only simulate so much in practice.

What about the other coaches that kept their starters in the game when it seemed like they had it in hand? Colt McCoy was still on the field in the third quarter after Texas had run out to a halftime score of 47-7 against UTEP. Terrelle Pryor played all four quarters of the 30-0 Ohio State blowout of Illinois(the score was 23-0 heading into the fourth quarter). Greg McElroy was still taking snaps for Alabama as the Crimson Tide was up 35-7 in the fourth quarter against Arkansas. Yet, you don't hear anyone criticizing Mack Brown, Jim Tressel or Nick Saban for keeping their starting quarterback(or any other starters) on the field too late in the game. Though, that's probably because none of them suffered a freak concussion by taking a knee to the back of the head by an offensive lineman. Which is exactly what happened.

Though, if you are one of those people bashing Urban Meyer and not one of the other coaches that did something similar yesterday I'm curious to know if it's because you don't follow football closely, you hate the Florida Gators and Urban Meyer or both.

Vinsanity Comes to Orlando

The trade that had been rumored during offseasons for the past couple years has finally come to fruition. Vince Carter will be playing for the Orlando Magic next season. For the most part, I like this trade, and it's not just because I'll get to watch hometown hero Vince Carter play night in and night out(Full disclosure: I grew up in the Daytona Beach area, and have always kept an eye on Vince's career).

The one part of the trade that I'm not too fond is the loss of Courtney Lee. He played extremely well as a rookie for the Magic this past season, and he's actually one of their better defenders. It would have been nice to have him locked up in a Magic jersey for years to come. However, this deal wasn't going to get done without him leaving town.

The rest of the trade is actually pretty good for Orlando. Alston was obviously unhappy with how his season ended. The damage done to the relationship between he and Coach Van Gundy could have been repaired, but I'm not sure there ever would have been good chemistry with Nelson starting and Alston coming off of the bench. Battie's contract made it necessary to shop him, and the strong possibility that Turkoglu isn't coming back made it imperative that Orlando make a move. Adding Carter lessens any blow that comes from Turkoglu leaving, and for those that say that Carter is too old, he's only 2 years older than Hedo.

Comparing the numbers, you'll see that Vince is a much better scorer and rebounder(Carter's career averages: 23.5pts/5.5 rebounds, Turkoglu's: 12.3pts/4.2 rebounds). Turkoglu probably shoots the 3 a little better. Even in his best season, 07-08, Turkoglu still averaged under 20pts/gm, whereas Carter has averaged 20+ pts 10 times in his career. Carter is stronger and more explosive, and can make it to the basket easier than Turkoglu. He can also shoot the mid/long range jumper fairly well, which makes him a good fit for the inside-out offense the Magic like to run.

The other thing to consider is that this trade relieves some of the pressure to resign Turkoglu to the big money deal he wants. While there's no doubt that he is talented player, Turkoglu doesn't warrant Orlando throwing a ton of money at him and putting a strain on any future signings.

Also, don't forget that Orlando is also getting Ryan Anderson. He's a quality forward that can shoot well, though, hopefully his defensive skills will improve just a bit.

All in all, I like the trade to bring Carter to the Magic. It not only helps the them on the court, but it also gives this small market team some big time press as they prepare to move into a new arena following the 2009 season.

The Mountain West Conference Requests A Bailout From Congress

I get that people want a playoff in college football. I understand that some don't see it as a "perfect system". They want a +1, or even an eight team playoff. But does Congress really need to be sticking its nose into this matter at a time like this?

Rep. Joe Barton of Texas, who has introduced legislation that would prevent the NCAA from calling a game a national championship unless it’s the outcome of a playoff, bluntly warned Swofford: “If we don’t see some action in the next two months, on a voluntary switch to a playoff system, then you will see this bill move.”

Seriously, Rep. Joe Barton of Texas you think going after the BCS on the issue of a playoff while your governor is riling up crowds with speeches insinuating secession, and violent Mexican drug wars are spilling over the border into your state is the best use of your time?

It is true that an change to the current system is probably going to have to come from the outside. The bowl structure is extremely lucrative for the TV networks, and the schools/conferences that receive automatic bids. Everyone that gets rich off of the BCS year in and year out really don't have any motivation to change unless they're forced to. However, right now is probably not the best time for Congress to be pressing this issue. Though, the MWC probably thinks that right now is the perfect time to request a bailout from Congressional leaders.